Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#1

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Success is something that most of us are probably excited about.
Most of the writers I know believe that it is impossible to determine whether a book will be successful or not.

I believe that the success of a book is quite predictable and consists of two things: 
A story that is interesting for a certain audience and good marketing.

Do you think it is possible to predict the success of a book?

What is a success for you?





Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#12
If by 'successful' you mean popular and profitable, then no. There is no way to predict success. There are terrible books that somehow make it big, and amazing books that stay underrated from the start. A story is more likely to succeed if it's good, well-written, well-advertised, and resonates with the audience at the time it's released, but it could just as easily hit all those indicators and still flop.

At least on a smaller site like this, it's a lot easier to find the underrated stories. Out in the wider world, there's just so much volume of content it becomes ridiculous to search through.

Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#13
I'm not going to pretend, the whole point of uploading a story is so people will read it, success is determined by how many people read it and how many is "enough" depends on the writer. The biggest indicator that a book will succeed is constant shilling, if a book is shilled enough, no matter how badly written it is, it will get readers. The mere virtue of being seen guarantees that the book might be someone's first novel in that genre which can endear them to it. Advertising and begging are common ways to shill your book, (I however do not do any shilling, because I'm lazy and apathetic). Anyways, if you want to predict which story will be popular you need to get an account at Similar Web (no, I'm not shilling them). You can follow internet traffic of referrals, typically fictions with a high referral rate indicates there's a lot of ads being ran for it. Similar Web in its basic form only gives estimations of site traffic, if you want specifics then you need an account. Conversely, there are other ways to shill yourself, like the forums. 

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Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#15

L.J.Anders Wrote: You may certainly try. However, there is no formula for success. There are things you can do at all fronts of publishing to increase your chances of success.  However, none of it is guaranteed. There maybe some unknown factor of why you're not reaching the success you want.

However, if you are like me, set the bar low. You'll never not meet your expectation.



What is a "low bar" for you, if it is not the secret?))

Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#16

Sethrax4 Wrote: I'm not going to pretend, the whole point of uploading a story is so people will read it, success is determined by how many people read it and how many is "enough" depends on the writer. The biggest indicator that a book will succeed is constant shilling, if a book is shilled enough, no matter how badly written it is, it will get readers. The mere virtue of being seen guarantees that the book might be someone's first novel in that genre which can endear them to it. Advertising and begging are common ways to shill your book, (I however do not do any shilling, because I'm lazy and apathetic). Anyways, if you want to predict which story will be popular you need to get an account at Similar Web (no, I'm not shilling them). You can follow internet traffic of referrals, typically fictions with a high referral rate indicates there's a lot of ads being ran for it. Similar Web in its basic form only gives estimations of site traffic, if you want specifics then you need an account. Conversely, there are other ways to shill yourself, like the forums. 

https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FJcQ1KCJ%2F1604318820400.jpg



I don't think you're lazy or apathetic, haha. You have a great sense of humor and I like your sarcasm. And yes, the picture is incredible!

Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#17

Asviloka Wrote: If by 'successful' you mean popular and profitable, then no. There is no way to predict success. There are terrible books that somehow make it big, and amazing books that stay underrated from the start. A story is more likely to succeed if it's good, well-written, well-advertised, and resonates with the audience at the time it's released, but it could just as easily hit all those indicators and still flop.

At least on a smaller site like this, it's a lot easier to find the underrated stories. Out in the wider world, there's just so much volume of content it becomes ridiculous to search through.



Thank you for your clear and honest answer, and I really liked your definition of success.

Re: Is it possible to predict the success of a book?

#20
I thought success was getting a finished product but the further I go the more I believe with others that success is having an audience.  If you can have someone wanting to read and waiting for the next installment, that is success, to me. 

You don't need to be popular, but if no one is reading it then it is only really successful as therapy for yourself isn't it?  Finishing a task alone can be successful for a person no matter if anyone would ever read it or not.  Just the fact that the act was done. 

I feel that the true sense of accomplishment of success is really, in the end, what you make of it.